Ivory Coast president, Alassane Ouattara has opted to keep the country and his party waiting a little longer on whether he will contest for a fourth term in the October 2025 presidential election, despite being overwhelmingly endorsed by his party.
Speaking at the conclusion of a two-day congress of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) on Sunday in Abidjan, the 83-year-old leader declined to confirm his candidacy, saying he needed more time for personal reflection.
“Concerning my candidacy for the presidential election, I will give an answer in some few days after a thorough reflection,” Ouattara told party faithful, who had rallied around him with full support.
The move, unexpected by many within the RHDP, has sparked both speculation and strategic recalculations across the country’s political spectrum, especially as opposition forces face disarray and disqualification.
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President Ouattara, who has held office since 2011, had earlier signalled his readiness to continue leading the country, citing his strength and commitment.
His potential candidacy appeared all but confirmed after key opposition figures, including former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam and ex-president Laurent Gbagbo, were barred from contesting.
Thiam, widely viewed as a top challenger, was ruled ineligible by a court decision questioning his Ivorian nationality. Speaking to AFP recently, Thiam confirmed that his party would not be presenting an alternative candidate in the election.
Despite the seeming advantage for the RHDP, Ouattara’s hesitation is being interpreted by some observers as a possible sign of exit plans or at least an internal succession strategy.
According to analysts at the Eurasia Group, “If Ouattara does not run, Vice President Tiemoko Kone and former Prime Minister Patrick Achi are the leading candidates for the RHDP nomination.”
Other figures reportedly being considered include Prime Minister Robert Beugré Mambé and Speaker of the National Assembly Adama Bictogo.
Even with this uncertainty, political experts believe the ruling party remains well positioned to maintain control.
“Whether Ouattara runs or not, his party will likely retain power given Ouattara’s and the party’s relative popularity and the absence of a unified or credible opposition,” Eurasia Group noted.
On Francois Conradie part, a lead political economist for Africa at Oxford Economics, suggested that the delay in Ouattara’s decision may be strategic.
“Ouattara will run for the elections and I think he will announce his candidacy in August,” he said. “He wants to see what Thiam and Gbagbo do. He has until the August 26 deadline to register as candidate.”
